The role of municipalities in the 21st Century

The environment where Portuguese municipalities act upon has gone through a deep transformation ever since the council’s arrival which was subsequent to the 25th April, 1974. Two aspects of this transformation are, in my perspective, particularly relevant:

(I) The change of focus in the autarchic performance. After, in most of cases, a great investment has been made in the basic infrastructure of territory and at the level of equipment, the central paper of the autarchic advisor is, more and more, to lead a territory project, organizing competitive networks and poles and contributing towards the attraction and maintenance of companies, projects and people.

(II) The growing competition, whether at a national level (between cities, city networkss and regions) or at an international level, not only of cities and regions which are close to us (for example Spanish ones) but also of places in the world which are physically distant and that globalization brings closer to us (examples: the rise of the “factory and office of the world” – respectively China and India; the opening and modernization of eastern European economies).

É neste contexto que cidades e regiões europeias embarcam com cada vez mais frequência em projectos de Prospectiva Territorial capazes de criar uma Visão comum e mobilizadora para o futuro, de fortalecer sinergias, redes e interfaces (capital social), de mobilizar os actores do território e melhorar as relações entre os cidadãos e as autoridades regionais/locais, de facilitar a implementação de processos inovadores e eficientes, de definir prioridades estratégicas, de melhorar a imagem do território e de melhorar a capacidade de inteligência económica dos territórios (identificando riscos a minorar e oportunidades a aproveitar com o máximo de antecipação face à concorrência).
It is in this context that European cities and regions embark more and more frequently in projects of Territorial Prospective capable of creating a common and mobilizing vision for the future, of strengthening synergies, networks and interfaces (social capital), pf mobilizing the territory’s actors, improving the relations between citizens and regional/local authorities, of facilitating the implementation of innovative and efficient processes, of defining strategic priorities, improving the territory’s image and the capacity of the territory’s economic intelligence (identifying risks to minimize and opportunities to make the most of with maximum of anticipation in relation to other competitors).

Examples to explore: Project Vision 2025 for the region of Helsinki (http://www.ytv.fi/ENG/future/vision/frontpage.htm), Strategic Partnership of Birmingham (http://www.bhamsp.org.uk/), Gipuzkoa 2020 (http://www.gipuzkoa.net/g2020/es/index.html), Vision Dublin 2020 (http://www.dubchamber.ie/economy_item.asp?article=496), Scenarios for the urban region of Edinburgh (http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/internet/environment/planning_buildings_i_i_/planning/planning_policies/CEC_a_vision_for_capital_growth_-_2020_-2040), Millénnaire3 (Grand Lyon) (http://www.millenaire3.com/), Metropolitan Strategic Plan of Barcelona (http://www.bcn2000.es/ca-es/default_ca_es.aspx), Gothenburg 2050 (http://www.goteborg2050.nu).

Portugal: Grow with the World and make the most out of change.

Friday, June 02, 2006


The drop in trade barriers and the circulation of capital and the sudden entrance of huge economies like China and India in the global competition for the markets of goods and services makes the capacity of economies like the Portuguese one to “grow with the world” even more decisive, meaning, to ‘tune in’ with the most dynamic sectors of international economy.

The problem is that not only is our business structure characterised by sectors losing out in global competition, but also central elements for the transformation of this reality (such as the education and scientific-technologic systems) have demonstrated great rigidity and resistance to change. Therefore, in spite of the indexes showing a growing qualification of human resources, the existence of an enlarged network of infra-structures (such as roads) and poles of R&D and centres of excellence for artistic creation, the Portuguese mission in a world in accelerated transformation appears quite a lot complex.

And here are the “heavy weights” (with a crescent opening of EU to Asia). And the EU is different, with new Member-States that directly compete with Portugal in many ranks, many of them with better conditions in terms of fiscal policy, qualification and location, making the position of economies like the Portuguese a difficult one on what concerns their relative atractiveness. Therefore the urge for attention to what is coming, for a selective definition of a strategy and of a perception of possible places for Portugal and its economy in growing activities related to, for example, sustainable mobility, health, the IT and entertainment.
It is change that affects and hits us. But it is also from this change and its exploration that opportunities emerge.

To explore change, it is essential, first of all, to be conscious of its nature and the relation of the actor, for example Portugal, with it. Here comes the distinction between changes in the context that the actor does not influence (“things that happen to us”) and changes “created” by the actor. And if the first type of change appeals to our attention and defines limits, supplying logics of behaviour and “rules of the game”, the second kind appeals to Portuguese capacity “to create its own future”, optimizing its capabilities and international positioning. It is about adding up the action (second type of change) to attention/monitoring/contingency (first type) and, above all, be conscious of the existing capacity to influence (second type) but that is contained within limits that one should known/make the most out of (first type).

On other hand, it is equally fundamental to understand the distinction between continuous, graduals changes, during long periods, which to do not threaten the reigning socio-economics structures; and disruptive, sudden changes, that put in cause the contemporary structures. This last type of change, normally less accompanied, is particularly important. Professor Peter Bishop, in a recent conference about Futures/Foresight in Munich advanced with the example of the speed of human movement: the appearance of the bike is clearly a disruptive change in relation to moving on foot; and a car is a lot faster than a bike; and no car, however fast it is, has the speed potential of a plane.

The problem is that all change brings problems and challenges structures that work. Moving by foot was great before bike appearance. Bike was excellent before cars emerged. And cars allowed for long trips until airplane came along.

E são precisamente estas estruturas que estão a funcionar bem aquando do surgimento da mudança disruptiva que é preciso abandonar para inovar e para aproveitar essa mudança. Como se intui, este processo é bastante difícil. Se, por vezes, é difícil descartar algo que comprovadamente não funciona, imagine-se o que é ter que abandonar algo que reconhecidamente funciona. Mas é precisamente neste repensar permanente dos seus métodos e práticas e na capacidade de abandonar modelos organizativos, opções e processos que funcionam que reside a vantagem competitiva de muitas organizações de sucesso, sejam elas empresas, regiões ou países.
It is precisely these structures that seem to be working well when disruptive change comes about that need to be abandoned in order to innovate make the most out of this change. As you can imagine, this process is quite difficult. If, sometimes, it is difficult to rule out something that has been proved not to work, imagine what it is have to abandon something that is recognized to work. But it is precisely in this permanent rethinking of its methods and practices and in the capacity to abandon organizing models, options and processes that work that resides the competitive advantage of many successful organizations, be it companies, regions or countries.

Exploring the Future: searching for a new literacy

In a brief way, we can define “Prospective” as being simultaneously a discipline (in the sense in which it appeals to logic and conceptual and methodological rigor), and art (in the sense in which it is only possible to learn by doing it) whose central worry is the exploration of the future.

If the capacity to “prospectivise” is innate to human beings [3], the areas of knowledge and Prospective practice go beyond this referred capacity, having as a fundamental purpose to explore the future in a specific way, namely:


Organised and Flexible (for example, conceiving and implementing modular processes through multiple tools according to defined objectives and available resources).
Systemic (searching to categorise and to interlink the different relevant elements for the analysis) and Systematic.
Consistent and structured (searching and justifying the coherence of combination between different elements: trends, uncertainties, wildcards, weak-signals, etc.).
Intuitive and Logical (combining intuition and creativity with rigor and logic).
Useful (lighting up the present and identifying challenges for the future, stimulating decision-making and framing the implementation and monitoring of strategies).

It is this attitude, capacity and need to explore the future that proves itself more and more decisive in competitive atmospheres, be it business, territorial or others. To understand the importance of development of prospective capacities (and of a new individual and organizational literacy), I suggest a “visit” to projects and organizations so different as the unity of “Insight and Foresight” of Nokia Corporation (www.nokia.com), the “Society and Technology Research Group” of Daimler-Chrysler (http://www.daimelrchrysler.com/), the project sponsored by Siemens and the approaches “Pictures of the Future” and analysis of trends developed by its Unit of Investigation and Development (www.siemens.com), to Future Management Group (www.futuremanagementgroup.com), to Z-Punkt (www.z-punkt.de), Social Technologies (www.socialtechnologies.com), to Fast Future (www.fastfuture.com), to Standford Research Institute Consulting – Business Intelligence) (http://www.sric-bi.com/), or to that which is the biggest global network of specialists in Planning and scenario thinking: Global Business Network (http://www.gbn.org/).

Think Tanks such as the Swedish Kairos Future (www.kairosfuture.com), the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies (www.cifs.dk) and the Institute for the Future of the USA (http://www.iftf.org/), and innovative projects of reference of Territorial Prospective like the “Millénaire3” of Lyon (www.millenaire3.com) and the Californian “The Valley Futures Project” (www.greatvalley.org/valley_futures/index.aspx) also demonstrate the dynamism of this area of knowledge and action.

Finally, one should also refer the Technologic Prospective Programs of which particular attention should be paid to the project organized by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy of Japan (http://www.nistep.go.jp/), FUTUR Project of Germany (www.bmbf.de/en/1317.php) the Foresight Project of the United Kingdom (http://www.foresight.gov.uk/); and the Future Centers / MindLabs that exist in many countries of Northern Europe, places specifically conceived to stimulate creativity, innovation and the exploration of the future.
Have a good trip.

[3] The Word “prospective” is used here in the sense of “deciding and acting taking into account the future”. This capacity is present and is applied in more or less unconscious and quotidian terms by all of us. For example, when driving a car we act with an expectation of how other drivers will behave (see Richard Slaughter, “The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies”, 2000)

Viseu: Vision and levels of action

Regions nowadays face great challenges in an increasingly competitive world (also at a regional level). Those challenges, external and internal, cannot (and should not) be answered by public powers but by a logic of a strict collaboration between public, private and associative actors, holding them co-responsible for the achievement (or not) of shared objectives. In this context, the first big challenge of a region is the creation of an integrating Vision that allows for multiple actors, when pursuing their own objectives, to have in mind the distinct nature of a collective project of a regional nature. What is our collective project? What does Viseu want in 10 years? From there onwards, it is not only essential to transform that Vision into specific projects that gives it a body but also to use it as an analytic structure of reference in the assessment of initiatives and projects (specially on what concerns projects of public initiative/coordination). On the other hand, a region, aiming at affirming its identity and at developing itself, basically faces three levels of action: A first level related to the far away context that nonetheless, reflects itself, in the region’s actions and ambitions. AT this level we have external uncertainties as the importance given to Portugal by big multinational companies, the dimension of a possible pandemic of bird flu or the evolution of the oil price in the international markets and the development of energetic alternatives. This type of uncertainties should be accompanied by the region, and paid great attention, in order to prevent unpleasant surprises, to minimize negative shocks and to make the most out of opportunities. A second level, linked to the context near the region, which includes processes of negotiation and influence very demanding to the local actors. Examples of uncertainties situated on this level:
framing of the region of Viseu in view of the next Communitarian Framework of Support; evolution of the regionalization process; future of regional actors (for example: Grupo Visabeira; Instituto Politécnico de Viseu) and structural sectors. Finally, a third level of coordination, selection and decision, related to the processes over which the actors of the region do not have a significant control. Among those processes we have a large group of options on what concerns, for example, mobility and logistics, human resources, economic activities, environment and territory. It is from the interrelation of these three levels (any of them essential for the future of a region’s management) and from its framing in a strategic mobilizing Vision that we can achieve an effective Regional Policy in the 21st century.

“Demain ne sera pas comme hier, il sera nouveau et dépendra de nous”[1]

Local elections are nearing. It is a moment for speeches and promises. For inaugurations and (particularly) wide political smiles. Time for new demands (and for the renewal of old ones), for stickers, electrical appliances (was it true?) and little flags. A time very often for a dangerous discrediting of the political system. In a context of deep changes in the role of local government (in which they can affirm themselves or not as promoters of development) and of great budget limitations, it is more and more important to define, together with the population and other actors of regional development, the priorities of public local action. What does the population want from its councillors? How to adjust public spheres to a world in transformation, allowing the Administration to be at the same time creative and renown? What is our collective project? What mobilizes us? These are some of the questions I would like to, at least see being considered and debated during the next electoral campaign. To decide about my vote, I am going to look for ideas and projects for the region. Someone who throws challenges to the population and to the actors of development. Who understands the importance of the economy and growing competition (increasingly also between local councils) in the caption and maintenance of knowledge, talents and investments. Someone who associates strategy and actors, public and private, cooperative and entrepreneurial. That says what he want to do and with whom he wants to do it with. That promotes the participation of actors, committing them and hold them co-responsible for the future. That understands that the collective intelligence of a region is far from just concerning the public sector. And that from that perception draws conclusions. Someone who, basically, believes, in permanence without hesitations that “tomorrow will not be as yesterday, it will be new and will depend on us”.

[1] Extract of “Phénoménologie du temps et prospective” (Gaston Berger, 1964).