Where to look? – The example of tourism

In a world flooded with information, the answer to the question “where to look?” becomes decisive in any exercise of Strategic Prospective that has in the phases of search and systematization of information a fundamental component. Because of the impossibility of including and monitoring everything, the focus of the exercise and its time horizon are instrumental in the definition of the “attention space” of a project. The Scenario-making process I co-organized in 2005 [2] about Tourism in Portugal constituted an example of how a definition of “attention space” evolves as the understanding of the dynamics of the phenomenon being analyzed increases. Therefore, it is natural that, initially, the angle is very wide, in order to prevent that anything with a great impact on the future of the sector goes forgotten. We chose, in the exercise devoted to Tourism, for an evolution/expansion of the traditional S.T.E.E.P analysis (Social, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics). O S.T.E.E.P. is no more than a generic aid in the search for elements likely to influence the focus of the exercise, initiating a categorization and reducing the possibility of omission of potentially relevant elements. Our S.T.E.E.P. adapted/customized for Tourism in Portugal in a 2020 horizon contained the following eleven categories: Companies and Institutions Dynamics, Demography, Market’s Liberalization and Deregulation, Geo-economics, Sustainability, Globalization-Localization, Security, Mobility/Communications, Work and Timeout, Values and Lifestyles, Technology. Hence, we began training our observation, orienting it for categories already adapted to the phenomenon being analyzed. However, we understand that it is still necessary a greater calibration of our attention, conferring it, therefore, greater strategic value, so we ended up opting for the following categorization: “Departures and Arrivals” (including: explosion of Asian tourism – mainly Chinese, heading to Europe; new sending tourism in the European East – Russian, for example; migrations in Europe heading southwards – example: acquisition of second residence by Nordics in Southern Europe; emergency/consolidation of new extra European destinies – “exotic”), Demography and Subjective Trends of Demand (including: growing value of holiday time; growth of “active pensioners” and of “baby boomers” - active young seniors; transformation of family – grandparents and children as decision-makers; growth of “single travelers”; of products/services for experiences/emotions – authenticity, learning, etc.; growing importance of environmental questions – sustainability; worries about security – psychological barriers to mobility), Dynamics of the supply (change in the forms of intermediation towards personalization/diversification; personalization/diversification of the supply – stimulating the appearance of new markets; virtualization of promotion – internet, etc.). We started, therefore, looking at reality in a much more incisive way, being capable of sensing alterations in the context closer to our focus (Tourism in Portugal) that, in spite of eventually not being very visible, have an inherent potential impact.


[2] See Soeiro de Carvalho, P., Alvarenga, A. and Félix Ribeiro, J. M., “Análise Prospectiva: Turismo em Portugal no Horizonte 2020”, parte II.3. – pp. 75-85 – do estudo “O Turismo em Portugal” e pp.121‑125 da respectiva separata, Colecção Estudos Sectoriais, n.º27, IQF, Novembro 2005 (http://www.inofor.pt/default.asp?SqlPage=publication&EvPublicationId=102).

Good Luck

Blair has an extraordinary task in hands: to quickly convince continentals to radically alter the allocation of money in the process of European integration, dedicating it to vanguard areas; and to convince, in the short-term, his fellow countrymen that this Europe of innovation, without CAP, with a large and deepened Single Market, that is more demanding in the application of structural funds, is worth it, it is fundamental for this process of European transformation that the United Kingdom (UK) adheres to the Single Currency. It is for this Herculean task of Blair that many in Europe look at expectation (starting with Durão Barroso, who has been going through complicated times since he assumed the Presidency of the European Commission – supported by, rember, the UK). If it comes through, Blair’s Europe will be a very different Europe. With a coordinated Defence sector but without aprioristic ambitions of counter-power against the USA. With the euro and a Single Market even more developed. With a big role for the Members-States (MS) and great caution towards advances considered as federalist (with that point, France will keep agreeing to). It will be a Europe that will reform its social-economic model that is so pressured by demography and global competition. And It will also be a more demanding Europe on what concerns security and, possibly, more attentive and selective in relation to immigration. It will be less cohesive and more competitive. With less funds of cohesion but with renewed opportunities for the most dynamic MS (and more risks for those who are incapable of reforming themselves and compete). If he achieves it, Blair will be making History. If he obtains an agreement in the Financial Perspectives, reforming the CAP and the English rebate and if, afterwards, he brings the UK closer to the European Union and to the Euro, Blair will be justly referenced in future historical pages relative to the beginnings of the XXI century of the “Old Continent”. Good Luck.