Are we attentive?

Although more evident nowadays, the Portuguese difficulties in the world economy are not from now. If we look at the 1990s (not to go any further) we will acknowledge that the need to alter the productive profile (and essentially the exporter profile) of Portugal (even then) was blatant. Even then Eastern European countries were affirming themselves as contestants whether in traditional sectors, intensive in labour and little demanding in qualifications (ex: clothing and footwear) or in sectors more scale and knowledge-based (ex: electronics and car industry). Even then these countries (Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania) paid particular attention to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as a fundamental vehicle for growth, better productivity and for a structural transformation of the economy. Even then China was positioning itself as a great contestant not only in the previously referred traditional sectors but also in more knowledge-based activities (ex: electronics). Nowadays, it presents itself as a giant in almost all the activity sectors, from those based on cheap labour to those based on scale and technology. Even in the high technology, China has been giving clear signs of being an actor to be taken into count. Even then India affirmed itself as a great exporter not only in traditional sectors but also in services (of different technological levels, from call centres to the high technology services as the development of computer applications). Even then, the Spanish regions showed great dynamism in activities competing with those developed in Portugal and aligned themselves with the international movements of the FDI.
It is not enough to do better and more creatively than Portugal did traditionally. It is also essential to do new things, to attract and conceive new activities that create value, of greater productivity and more tuned in with the variations of international commerce. There is a new technologic wave emerging – with effects at the levels of investment and international commerce. Are we attentive?

Good Luck

Blair has an extraordinary task in hands: to quickly convince continentals to radically alter the allocation of money in the process of European integration, dedicating it to vanguard areas; and to convince, in the short-term, his fellow countrymen that this Europe of innovation, without CAP, with a large and deepened Single Market, that is more demanding in the application of structural funds, is worth it, it is fundamental for this process of European transformation that the United Kingdom (UK) adheres to the Single Currency. It is for this Herculean task of Blair that many in Europe look at expectation (starting with Durão Barroso, who has been going through complicated times since he assumed the Presidency of the European Commission – supported by, rember, the UK). If it comes through, Blair’s Europe will be a very different Europe. With a coordinated Defence sector but without aprioristic ambitions of counter-power against the USA. With the euro and a Single Market even more developed. With a big role for the Members-States (MS) and great caution towards advances considered as federalist (with that point, France will keep agreeing to). It will be a Europe that will reform its social-economic model that is so pressured by demography and global competition. And It will also be a more demanding Europe on what concerns security and, possibly, more attentive and selective in relation to immigration. It will be less cohesive and more competitive. With less funds of cohesion but with renewed opportunities for the most dynamic MS (and more risks for those who are incapable of reforming themselves and compete). If he achieves it, Blair will be making History. If he obtains an agreement in the Financial Perspectives, reforming the CAP and the English rebate and if, afterwards, he brings the UK closer to the European Union and to the Euro, Blair will be justly referenced in future historical pages relative to the beginnings of the XXI century of the “Old Continent”. Good Luck.