The role of municipalities in the 21st Century

The environment where Portuguese municipalities act upon has gone through a deep transformation ever since the council’s arrival which was subsequent to the 25th April, 1974. Two aspects of this transformation are, in my perspective, particularly relevant:

(I) The change of focus in the autarchic performance. After, in most of cases, a great investment has been made in the basic infrastructure of territory and at the level of equipment, the central paper of the autarchic advisor is, more and more, to lead a territory project, organizing competitive networks and poles and contributing towards the attraction and maintenance of companies, projects and people.

(II) The growing competition, whether at a national level (between cities, city networkss and regions) or at an international level, not only of cities and regions which are close to us (for example Spanish ones) but also of places in the world which are physically distant and that globalization brings closer to us (examples: the rise of the “factory and office of the world” – respectively China and India; the opening and modernization of eastern European economies).

É neste contexto que cidades e regiões europeias embarcam com cada vez mais frequência em projectos de Prospectiva Territorial capazes de criar uma Visão comum e mobilizadora para o futuro, de fortalecer sinergias, redes e interfaces (capital social), de mobilizar os actores do território e melhorar as relações entre os cidadãos e as autoridades regionais/locais, de facilitar a implementação de processos inovadores e eficientes, de definir prioridades estratégicas, de melhorar a imagem do território e de melhorar a capacidade de inteligência económica dos territórios (identificando riscos a minorar e oportunidades a aproveitar com o máximo de antecipação face à concorrência).
It is in this context that European cities and regions embark more and more frequently in projects of Territorial Prospective capable of creating a common and mobilizing vision for the future, of strengthening synergies, networks and interfaces (social capital), pf mobilizing the territory’s actors, improving the relations between citizens and regional/local authorities, of facilitating the implementation of innovative and efficient processes, of defining strategic priorities, improving the territory’s image and the capacity of the territory’s economic intelligence (identifying risks to minimize and opportunities to make the most of with maximum of anticipation in relation to other competitors).

Examples to explore: Project Vision 2025 for the region of Helsinki (http://www.ytv.fi/ENG/future/vision/frontpage.htm), Strategic Partnership of Birmingham (http://www.bhamsp.org.uk/), Gipuzkoa 2020 (http://www.gipuzkoa.net/g2020/es/index.html), Vision Dublin 2020 (http://www.dubchamber.ie/economy_item.asp?article=496), Scenarios for the urban region of Edinburgh (http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/internet/environment/planning_buildings_i_i_/planning/planning_policies/CEC_a_vision_for_capital_growth_-_2020_-2040), Millénnaire3 (Grand Lyon) (http://www.millenaire3.com/), Metropolitan Strategic Plan of Barcelona (http://www.bcn2000.es/ca-es/default_ca_es.aspx), Gothenburg 2050 (http://www.goteborg2050.nu).

Where to look? The three Californian “tigers”: Silicon Valley, San Diego and Los Angeles

Occupying most of USA’s West cost, California is a nuclear state on what concerns the concentration of activities based on knowledge, innovation and technologic intensity. It holds cities, regions and metropolitan areas that are among the most dynamic when it comes to the industries and services of bigger growth over the last two decades as well as a great percentage of people with the necessary capacity to innovate and to put new products and services in the market, to create employment, to sustain the continuous increase of productivity and to continue making north-American economy the “giant incubator” that Kaihla[2] talks about. In this article some characteristics of the three main sub regions of California (Silicon Valley, San Diego and Los Angeles/Orange County) are presented, and at the end, I put forward some explicative factors of the Californian success.

Silicon Valley is the most shining global pole on what concern knowledge economy and the production of technology, being the greater concentration of high-technology offices in the world. Robert Metcalfe, a famous businessperson of the area, founder of the 3Com commented:

“Silicon Valley is the only place on Earth that is not trying to find a way of becoming Silicon Valley”. San Jose is the capital of Silicon Valley, being the metropolitan area of the USA with greater percentage of employment whether in sectors linked to Information Technology (48,9%) or sectors linked to high-technology (24,8%). São Francisco/Oakland, area of initial growth of the USA linked to the gold rush, is, nowadays, the world leader in high-technology, capital of risk and biotechnology and the most attractive region of the USA for qualified workers in the areas of the knowledge economy. San Francisco is 1st in the creativity index (big cities) of Richard Florida with 34,8% of workers belonging to the “creative class”. It is one of the epicenters of talent in the USA, with its pool of scientists, engineers, artists, cultural creators, managers and liberal professionals.

Gifted with a unique geography (sitting between the ocean, the desert and the mountains), San Diego is 3rd in the creativity index (big cities) of Richard Florida with 32,1% of workers belonging to the “creative class”. San Diego County, an urban region which is clearly growing had, between 2000 and 2002, some of the biggest gains in terms of companies (more than 1100), employment (30 000 new jobs) and salaries (increase of 2 billions of USD) of the whole US. In spite of a quarter of the employment still being in the defense sector, San Diego has managed to diversify the productive tissue, with the rise of clusters associated to telecommunications and medical/biotechnology’s sciences. This last cluster has assumed itself, in the last years, as the main motor of development.
More towards the south, the Los Angeles’ region is characterized by a great economic diversification, not so much concentrated in internet/dot.com companies like in Silicon Valley, or in biotechnology/defense as San Diego. This diversity gives greater stability at the Economy but, by lack of a better defined economic motor, it limits the creation of wealth and employment in periods of expansion of certain activities. It coexists, however, with a particular importance of the entertainment, Aerospatiale, services to companies and some activities in the sector of non-lasting possessions.
Orange County (nowadays world famous because of the television series O.C.) went from suburb and residential zone supporting Loa Angeles in the 70’s and 80’s, to the 4th place of the big metropolitan areas of the USA in terms of percentage of employment, whether in what concerns sectors linked to the Technologies of Information, or when it comes to high technologies’ sectors. The strength of the Aerospatiale industry contributed a lot to the development of countless innovative companies in sectors like computer components, industrial machinery, medical equipment and scientific instruments.
Among the factors that most contributed to California’s success in high technology and creativity activities we can point to (i) the quality of Universities – sustained effort by the state government in reinforcing some of the great universities, namely Stanford, California–Berkeley and California-São Francisco. For example, Stanford University participates in the capital of hundreds of startups – including Google, the biggest internet search engine in the world – that uses technologies developed at the university; (ii) the availability of capitals thanks to the existence of risk capital and of the strong presence of the investment bank; (iii) the attraction of public investments and of suppliers of public programs in the areas of Defense and Space – of these, the Space centre of Houston and the investments of Pentagon’s great contractors should be of particular mention; (iv) the unique combination, in intensity of knowledge and competences in two great technologic routes that marked the last twenty years: Life Sciences and Computer Sciences; (v) the cultural environment and lifestyles favorable to innovation and creativity. San Francisco is an example: being one of the main creative centers of the USA, it has a solid mix of industries and high technologies with a rich history, with great appeal when it comes to qualified workers in the areas of knowledge economy (for example, the new campus of San Francisco of the University of California dedicated to biomedicine and that would employ 9000 researchers); (vi) the geographic position that since always, has facilitated an opening to the outside and, in a more recent period, a greater interaction with Asia, translated, among other aspects, in the attraction of talents from India and China to the state universities, most of them subsequently involved in the creation of innovative companies. (example: in 2000 there were in San Jose 3755 companies belonging to Indians and Chinese, corresponding to a business volume above 23 millions of dollars and 88 000 jobs.[3]

[2] Paul Kaihla: Boom Towns, Business 2.0, March 2004, pp. 94-102.
[3] For a deep analysis of the California case and of other regions of the USA see Marques, I., Chorincas, J., Alvarenga, A. e Félix Ribeiro, J. M., “Prosperidade e Inovação nas Regiões dos EUA”, Informação Internacional - Análise Económica e Política, DSP-DPP (MAOTDR), Lisboa, 2006, pp. 9‑102.

Where to look? – The example of tourism

In a world flooded with information, the answer to the question “where to look?” becomes decisive in any exercise of Strategic Prospective that has in the phases of search and systematization of information a fundamental component. Because of the impossibility of including and monitoring everything, the focus of the exercise and its time horizon are instrumental in the definition of the “attention space” of a project. The Scenario-making process I co-organized in 2005 [2] about Tourism in Portugal constituted an example of how a definition of “attention space” evolves as the understanding of the dynamics of the phenomenon being analyzed increases. Therefore, it is natural that, initially, the angle is very wide, in order to prevent that anything with a great impact on the future of the sector goes forgotten. We chose, in the exercise devoted to Tourism, for an evolution/expansion of the traditional S.T.E.E.P analysis (Social, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics). O S.T.E.E.P. is no more than a generic aid in the search for elements likely to influence the focus of the exercise, initiating a categorization and reducing the possibility of omission of potentially relevant elements. Our S.T.E.E.P. adapted/customized for Tourism in Portugal in a 2020 horizon contained the following eleven categories: Companies and Institutions Dynamics, Demography, Market’s Liberalization and Deregulation, Geo-economics, Sustainability, Globalization-Localization, Security, Mobility/Communications, Work and Timeout, Values and Lifestyles, Technology. Hence, we began training our observation, orienting it for categories already adapted to the phenomenon being analyzed. However, we understand that it is still necessary a greater calibration of our attention, conferring it, therefore, greater strategic value, so we ended up opting for the following categorization: “Departures and Arrivals” (including: explosion of Asian tourism – mainly Chinese, heading to Europe; new sending tourism in the European East – Russian, for example; migrations in Europe heading southwards – example: acquisition of second residence by Nordics in Southern Europe; emergency/consolidation of new extra European destinies – “exotic”), Demography and Subjective Trends of Demand (including: growing value of holiday time; growth of “active pensioners” and of “baby boomers” - active young seniors; transformation of family – grandparents and children as decision-makers; growth of “single travelers”; of products/services for experiences/emotions – authenticity, learning, etc.; growing importance of environmental questions – sustainability; worries about security – psychological barriers to mobility), Dynamics of the supply (change in the forms of intermediation towards personalization/diversification; personalization/diversification of the supply – stimulating the appearance of new markets; virtualization of promotion – internet, etc.). We started, therefore, looking at reality in a much more incisive way, being capable of sensing alterations in the context closer to our focus (Tourism in Portugal) that, in spite of eventually not being very visible, have an inherent potential impact.


[2] See Soeiro de Carvalho, P., Alvarenga, A. and Félix Ribeiro, J. M., “Análise Prospectiva: Turismo em Portugal no Horizonte 2020”, parte II.3. – pp. 75-85 – do estudo “O Turismo em Portugal” e pp.121‑125 da respectiva separata, Colecção Estudos Sectoriais, n.º27, IQF, Novembro 2005 (http://www.inofor.pt/default.asp?SqlPage=publication&EvPublicationId=102).

Apricot in Norway

Norway is, basically, the richest country in the world, occupying the first place (or close) in most of development indexes. It is situated in the Scandinavian chain close to Sweden and Denmark, the historical powers of these regions. It is not part of the European Union (EU) by referendum option (but, for example, it takes part in the space of free circulation of people – Schengen).

People are few and space is abundant. The older people talk little but those who are younger talk more and more. Oslo is a peaceful city, where wealth strikes you discretely as in a premonition. “Premonition” is, actually, an adequate word for Norway, rich with oil and natural gas of the North and Artic Seas that started to flow towards the “fat” budget of the Norwegian State since the 60´s. It envisioned an organization of social democratic matrix, a rigorous and discreet public control of vast riches that in so many other places of the world turned into ostentation, misery, war and death (some examples just in Africa: Niger, Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Coute d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan and Chad). You can envision an almost philosophical anguish in people’s look (perhaps influenced by the grey climate varying from midnight’s sun to the minimum clarity of its winters), between the confident austerity and conscientious suicide. Death, Black, Trash & Other Metal, statues in Oslo, pines and endless routes sprinkled by reindeers and Sami people complete a quick image of the country. Trying to be even more imprecise, I proceed with 18 hobbies of the Norwegian:

1- To solve other peoples’ problems after having solved their own. Norway is one of the countries that most contributes towards international cooperation, frequently assuming itself as a conflict mediator (example: Sri Lanka and Cyprus) and developing a lot of investigation in this area. PRIO, for example, is an institute of international reference in the area of Peace and Conflict Studies.

2 - Death, Black, Trash & other Metal. Não só são norueguesas algumas das bandas de referência como também os noruegueses constituem, com grande probabilidade, o povo mais fanático por este género musical (“Podia-me traduzir esta letra dos Sepultura?” – perguntou-me candidamente um respeitável professor sexagenário).
2- Death, Black, Trash & other Metal. Not only are most of the bands of reference Norwegian but also the Norwegian constitute, with great probability, the most fanatic people for this particular musical genre. (Could you translate these Sepultura’s lyrics for me? – candidly asked me a respectable sexagenarian teacher).
3- To award the Nobel Peace prize, the most prestigious of prices (Norwegian Nobel Institute of Oslo)
4- To commit suicide.
5- To fish (second largest fishing fleet in Europe and great exporter) and to produce fish (including cod fish) in fish farms.
6- To die in car crashes caused by mousses.
7- To talk little (diminishing and in inversely proportional to age).
8- To have comfortable bathrooms with heated floor.
9- To eat pig’s heads (including the eyes, the best part, of course).
10- To drink wine every time the bottle costs less than 3500 kroner (nearly 40€). Directly related to this hobby is the sub-hobby of the alcohol exaggerations in ferries.

11- To build and show statues (with particular regard for the Master Viggeland).
12- To steal and recover famous paintings.
13- Trekking and cross-country skiing through the middle of the pine trees. Worth noting that those who practice cross-country skiing are usually persevering and methodical athletes who enjoy jazz and classical music while ski jumpers are usually adventurous, eccentric and, eventually, members of black metal bands.
14- To redistribute the oil’s money (they have, for example, the highest minimum wage of the world – something close to 12€/hour).
15- To read newspapers. They are the people that read more newspapers, counting with more than 80 daily newspapers (more than 230 altogether).
16- To speak English. Almost everyone speaks this language and a great part of higher education is in English. The adaptation by the teachers was difficult, but it has been successful.
17- To get a suntan. Holidays in the South and solariums.
18- To breath oxygen with flavours (I suggest apricot).

Why do it differently in Portugal?

Last week, I had the opportunity to go back to Romania, more concretely to Bucharest, through my involvement in an European network of researchers in the area of Prospective/Foresight. The meeting was quite interesting, allowing the exchange of different national experiences, the exploration of common work possibilities and contributing for the conceptual, methodological, and empirical “densification” of the discipline. The usual thing in these European networks (when they go well, of course).
I had been in Romania 12 years ago, involved in an European project of implementation of a Business Innovation Centre in Timisoara, in the west of the country.
At the time, the image I retained both of Timisoara and of the rest of the country was quite greyish (in spite of recognizing the richness of its landscape), of a castrating poverty, of detachment, contrasting with the cultural and historical dimensions of these places. They were accounts of an Orwellian dictatorship, communist and populist, which managed and conditioned everything, spearheaded by Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena.
The cars and buses fell apart, except for the limousines of dealers (of people, drugs, arms, etc.) that beneficiated a lot with the conflicts associated to the desegregation of Yugoslavia.
Today, if in Bucharest, we can still find signals of the anachronic dictatorship of Ceausescu and comrades (though similar signal also still exist, for example, in Berlin), not much is left of that Romania of 1994.
There are still a few Dacia but the company has been, meanwhile, bought by Renault. There are loads of BMW and similar cars. The multinationals are present all over the country and have become landmarks of the capital’s image. The center of Bucharest can be perfectly mistaken by any other European capital. Deloitte Offices, young executives of dark suits, design coffees and bars, restaurants of every colours and forms, Irish pubs… The Ibis Hotel has rooms, on special offer, at 99€/night (in 1994 to cross Timisoara in a falling apart taxi , in roads full of potholes cost something like 4 escudos in the exchange rate of the time).

The traffic is chaotic. At night, I watch BBC and Chelsea TV in my hotel room. Everything is transformed, everything is built. Roads, motorways, apartments, skyscrapers. Distribution is also on a high with the presence of great European networks like Lidl and Carrefour.

There are also Portuguese. Lena Construções is, for example, in charge of the motorway connection works between the airport and the city. Coindu (upholsteries) is also present in Romania, like Mota-Engil, Infosistema (information systems consultancy) and, of course, BCP (just to give some examples). The bathroom of my hotel was equipped with ‘Valadares’ Ceramic.
There are clear signs that some Portuguese groups (essentially linked to construction) understood that they can replicate in the East the experience accumulated in Portugal. Romania is only an example that is still just starting.
Therefore the doubts I have in relation to those who defend that it is this time that Portuguese capital, given the possible profitability reduction of the sectors linked to the “soil” (construction and similar) and to distribution, would finally start to look with more attention towards industries and services linked to knowledge.
At the end of the day, let’s be frank, why do it differently in Portugal if we can earn so much more money doing the same in any other place?

To deal with uncertainty: a lesson from Shell

Shell is, probably, the most emblematic case of application of Scenario Planning, having used this methodology (widely divulged in the business circles from the 60´s onwards) in his success route through the instability of the oil market.

In the beginning, Scenarios were not more than evolutions of the traditional approaches, meaning that, instead of a unique linear prevision, a probabilistic evaluation of different futures was carried out, identifying a projection as the most probable.

Starting from the recognition of this system’s failures, Shell started to base its Scenario Planning on qualitative causal thought (moving away from linear projections), appealing to the need felt by decision-makers of understanding and anticipating the structural changes of the society. Using the method of Herman Kahn (the precursor of Scenario Planning in the USA), namely when it comes to distinguishing between uncertainties (crucial) and pre-determined elements (that can be anticipated), Shell built multiple histories of plausible futures (Scenarios) which could be used to test strategic decisions and options. Therefore, each Shell project was evaluated in terms of two or three Scenarios (considered as equally plausible), generating two or three different results for the company (one for each Scenario). The decision to proceed or not with the project was taken according to the different results of the projects, tested in the several Scenarios.[2]
Scenario Planning strengthened the construction of projects and the decision-making, testing it against a collection of alternative futures. This added value, that is not the only one of Scenario Planning, is more and more decisive in a business context (and also, for example, in the regional and cities context) which is more complex, competitive and uncertain, where the anticipation and perception of structural changes (for example, in the markets and technologies) can mean a huge difference between success/survival and unsuccess/ decay.


[2] For a more detailed presentation of the evolution of Shell’s Scenario Planning take a look at Kees van der Heijden book in which this small introduction was based on: “Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation”, John Wiley & Sons, 1996”.

A per capita country and the Lebanon war (with Europe in between)

Time for holidays, of unpretentious readings (how I miss the Summer of the “Da Vinci Code”…) and of futilities to relax. Parties with sardines or vodka, with foam or salami. Going south, to the coast, towards a heat that is attenuated by the sea.

Escaping the everyday buzz to try and understand it better. Everything is in pre-epoch in Portugal. Everything is ok. Those who can, go to the hotel. Those who sort of can, rent a place and share the costs with family and friends. Those who almost can’t, try to enjoy a couple of escapes to the beach. Those who cannot, either pretend they can or stay at home.

We are important people and that allows us to go on holidays in a relaxed manner. We are important, not only because we are one of the four better football squads of the world, but also because our C-130 travels, “at UN’s request”, between Italy and Beirut. And it is the only one. The national logic and the journalistic presentation of these two “important things” is more or less the same. One like the other let us at ease with ourselves.

On the one hand, we are good at doing what we like, that is, to play football (and everything associated to it: from Super Bock to cafe chit chat). All this despite us being a small country, make notice therefore that, in per capita terms, we clearly were the world champions.

On the other hand, we do per capita our very meaningful part, in helping the international effort to respond to the conflict in Lebanon. I repeat, our C-130 travels, “at UN’s request”, between Italy and Beirut to transport humanitarian aid. And it is the only one. Drawn in jealousy super-powers. It is on these little details that great nations define themselves!

Strangely, nobody seems ask why the hell is our C-130 the only one doing this work. But this does not matter. What matters is that it is the only one and it is Portuguese and that Portugal, in spite of being a small country, leads the aerial humanitarian effort to help the victims of the bombardments. That really puts me at ease. What else could we have done? It already had been our Minister of Foreign Affairs (MFA) who had asked for a special meeting of the MFA of the EU about this subject and now we had our plane that just keeps landing in Beirut filled with humanitarian aid.

It is true that, once again, the EU was completely incapable of taking a common stance that someone understands. It is also true that the international intervention plan in this conflict seems to be peacefully (to give Israel more time to do its “work”) prepared by the USA, by talking to those that matter. And, in Europe, it is France and the United Kingdom that matters (and, in a second level, Germany and Italy). The EU does not have armed forces prepared to die by the orders of the President of the Commission of of the European Parliament or of the Council. In Foreign Policy and Defence, the EU could be a vision or a Project, but it is not (I do not know if it must be) a reality.

As I have said before, us Portuguese, are at ease because we have already done what we could. Nowadays we are in the need of holidays, of pink magazines, of “Da Vinci Code” sequels, of open-air discos and pretty people. Pretty people like those who appeared on Beirut’s photography, the Paris of the Middle East, once again bombarded on a daily basis. Many of those pretty people should already have gone out of the city and the country (at least pretty people with appropriated nationality, that is, not Lebanese, and/or with enough money).
In Lebanon and Israel, the war became once again an everyday affair, occulting, among other tragedies, the Iraqi (only a man with the charisma of Fidel Castro managed to rival media-wise with an Israeli-Arab war; and, even so, only if the intensity of bombardments and the clarity of the mutilated bodies’ images is not enough).
I try to read something about what happens.
I knew there was an UN resolution to disarm Hezbollah and that, if something is certain, is that Hezbollah was not disarmed (thousands of missiles moved in lorries usually do not result from a well succeeded disarmament). It is true that the fact that Hezbollah, supported by Syria and a pro-nuclear Iran (remember?), violating the international line that separates (separated?) Israel from Lebanon, attacking Israeli soldiers and kidnapping two of them is not exactly an act of peace.

It is true that the non-recognition of the state of Israel state by Hezbollah, by Hamas and the successive declarations of Iranian representatives are not exactly an act of approximation to Israel, a small country in permanent state of war and fighting for survival.

It is true that Israel’s response is brutal, perhaps disproportional (but disproportional to what?, the two soldiers’ life or to the existence of a nation?). It is true that the news and the images that arrive to us are extreme.
I do not really know where to find guidance from. I will just stay here. Reading, Talking and trying to understand a bit better. Good holidays.

The unlikely hero

This week our Princess also went to the stadium. She does not understand a lot about football (she does not know from which country Ferencváros is – apparently a decisive criterion) but she does not want to miss out on the last exploits of a certain unlikely hero.

He defended three penalties, lives in Montijo (according to magazines of the field, it seems he has a house near his parents and his brother) and appears to be a normal person. This time it was with gloves, but it does not matter. He dedicated the victory to God (He is grateful, of course). He also dedicated it to his wife and family. He is the most unlikely of the heroes. Or perhaps not. His voice does not project leadership but the hero transcends himself (a word that has been used a lot lately) in the football squad. He has not the luxurious life of “pop-soccer players”. He is not handsome or elegant, or particularly charismatic. He was not interested in the money-obsessed “metro-sexuality” of some of his work colleagues.
At Sporting, fortunately, he does not seem to be a great goalkeeper. The seasons are mediocre and the publicity he does is to a chicken factory. But he is our unlikely hero. A Portuguese man who made a few million people happy. Possibly the successor of Eusébio in history. A hero of a generation.

On the last weekend we all wanted to hug Ricardo. We do not care about the new Minister of Foreign Affairs and the replacement in the Defence portfolio; about the conflicts in Timor and the shrew tension between Ramos Horta and Xanana, between Fretilin and Australia; about the Israelite offensive in Gaza; the violence in Sadr City and the beginning of the Finnish presidency of the European Union (EU). We do not want to know about the rise in oil and transports prices, the increase in interest taxes and the debt of the Portuguese or the multiple standstills of the EU. Why would we care.

“Labreca” (let me call you that), next time, you are going to save 4.

[1] This article is written in Manchester where I came to one day after the game against England. Imagine what it would be arriving here after an English victory… Nevertheless, because I write it before the semi-final, I want to make it clear that if Ricardo “screws it up” in that game, all praises are to be taken back.

Portugal: Grow with the World and make the most out of change.

Friday, June 02, 2006


The drop in trade barriers and the circulation of capital and the sudden entrance of huge economies like China and India in the global competition for the markets of goods and services makes the capacity of economies like the Portuguese one to “grow with the world” even more decisive, meaning, to ‘tune in’ with the most dynamic sectors of international economy.

The problem is that not only is our business structure characterised by sectors losing out in global competition, but also central elements for the transformation of this reality (such as the education and scientific-technologic systems) have demonstrated great rigidity and resistance to change. Therefore, in spite of the indexes showing a growing qualification of human resources, the existence of an enlarged network of infra-structures (such as roads) and poles of R&D and centres of excellence for artistic creation, the Portuguese mission in a world in accelerated transformation appears quite a lot complex.

And here are the “heavy weights” (with a crescent opening of EU to Asia). And the EU is different, with new Member-States that directly compete with Portugal in many ranks, many of them with better conditions in terms of fiscal policy, qualification and location, making the position of economies like the Portuguese a difficult one on what concerns their relative atractiveness. Therefore the urge for attention to what is coming, for a selective definition of a strategy and of a perception of possible places for Portugal and its economy in growing activities related to, for example, sustainable mobility, health, the IT and entertainment.
It is change that affects and hits us. But it is also from this change and its exploration that opportunities emerge.

To explore change, it is essential, first of all, to be conscious of its nature and the relation of the actor, for example Portugal, with it. Here comes the distinction between changes in the context that the actor does not influence (“things that happen to us”) and changes “created” by the actor. And if the first type of change appeals to our attention and defines limits, supplying logics of behaviour and “rules of the game”, the second kind appeals to Portuguese capacity “to create its own future”, optimizing its capabilities and international positioning. It is about adding up the action (second type of change) to attention/monitoring/contingency (first type) and, above all, be conscious of the existing capacity to influence (second type) but that is contained within limits that one should known/make the most out of (first type).

On other hand, it is equally fundamental to understand the distinction between continuous, graduals changes, during long periods, which to do not threaten the reigning socio-economics structures; and disruptive, sudden changes, that put in cause the contemporary structures. This last type of change, normally less accompanied, is particularly important. Professor Peter Bishop, in a recent conference about Futures/Foresight in Munich advanced with the example of the speed of human movement: the appearance of the bike is clearly a disruptive change in relation to moving on foot; and a car is a lot faster than a bike; and no car, however fast it is, has the speed potential of a plane.

The problem is that all change brings problems and challenges structures that work. Moving by foot was great before bike appearance. Bike was excellent before cars emerged. And cars allowed for long trips until airplane came along.

E são precisamente estas estruturas que estão a funcionar bem aquando do surgimento da mudança disruptiva que é preciso abandonar para inovar e para aproveitar essa mudança. Como se intui, este processo é bastante difícil. Se, por vezes, é difícil descartar algo que comprovadamente não funciona, imagine-se o que é ter que abandonar algo que reconhecidamente funciona. Mas é precisamente neste repensar permanente dos seus métodos e práticas e na capacidade de abandonar modelos organizativos, opções e processos que funcionam que reside a vantagem competitiva de muitas organizações de sucesso, sejam elas empresas, regiões ou países.
It is precisely these structures that seem to be working well when disruptive change comes about that need to be abandoned in order to innovate make the most out of this change. As you can imagine, this process is quite difficult. If, sometimes, it is difficult to rule out something that has been proved not to work, imagine what it is have to abandon something that is recognized to work. But it is precisely in this permanent rethinking of its methods and practices and in the capacity to abandon organizing models, options and processes that work that resides the competitive advantage of many successful organizations, be it companies, regions or countries.

Exploring the Future: searching for a new literacy

In a brief way, we can define “Prospective” as being simultaneously a discipline (in the sense in which it appeals to logic and conceptual and methodological rigor), and art (in the sense in which it is only possible to learn by doing it) whose central worry is the exploration of the future.

If the capacity to “prospectivise” is innate to human beings [3], the areas of knowledge and Prospective practice go beyond this referred capacity, having as a fundamental purpose to explore the future in a specific way, namely:


Organised and Flexible (for example, conceiving and implementing modular processes through multiple tools according to defined objectives and available resources).
Systemic (searching to categorise and to interlink the different relevant elements for the analysis) and Systematic.
Consistent and structured (searching and justifying the coherence of combination between different elements: trends, uncertainties, wildcards, weak-signals, etc.).
Intuitive and Logical (combining intuition and creativity with rigor and logic).
Useful (lighting up the present and identifying challenges for the future, stimulating decision-making and framing the implementation and monitoring of strategies).

It is this attitude, capacity and need to explore the future that proves itself more and more decisive in competitive atmospheres, be it business, territorial or others. To understand the importance of development of prospective capacities (and of a new individual and organizational literacy), I suggest a “visit” to projects and organizations so different as the unity of “Insight and Foresight” of Nokia Corporation (www.nokia.com), the “Society and Technology Research Group” of Daimler-Chrysler (http://www.daimelrchrysler.com/), the project sponsored by Siemens and the approaches “Pictures of the Future” and analysis of trends developed by its Unit of Investigation and Development (www.siemens.com), to Future Management Group (www.futuremanagementgroup.com), to Z-Punkt (www.z-punkt.de), Social Technologies (www.socialtechnologies.com), to Fast Future (www.fastfuture.com), to Standford Research Institute Consulting – Business Intelligence) (http://www.sric-bi.com/), or to that which is the biggest global network of specialists in Planning and scenario thinking: Global Business Network (http://www.gbn.org/).

Think Tanks such as the Swedish Kairos Future (www.kairosfuture.com), the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies (www.cifs.dk) and the Institute for the Future of the USA (http://www.iftf.org/), and innovative projects of reference of Territorial Prospective like the “Millénaire3” of Lyon (www.millenaire3.com) and the Californian “The Valley Futures Project” (www.greatvalley.org/valley_futures/index.aspx) also demonstrate the dynamism of this area of knowledge and action.

Finally, one should also refer the Technologic Prospective Programs of which particular attention should be paid to the project organized by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy of Japan (http://www.nistep.go.jp/), FUTUR Project of Germany (www.bmbf.de/en/1317.php) the Foresight Project of the United Kingdom (http://www.foresight.gov.uk/); and the Future Centers / MindLabs that exist in many countries of Northern Europe, places specifically conceived to stimulate creativity, innovation and the exploration of the future.
Have a good trip.

[3] The Word “prospective” is used here in the sense of “deciding and acting taking into account the future”. This capacity is present and is applied in more or less unconscious and quotidian terms by all of us. For example, when driving a car we act with an expectation of how other drivers will behave (see Richard Slaughter, “The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies”, 2000)